Friday, September 30, 2016

Paradigm Shift in India's Pakistan Policy

Post the attacks on Army Camp in Uri on 18th September 2016, the mood of the nation was not just grim but also exhausted. Everyone had same question: “Will we ever strike back?” or more importantly does our current Government, unlike the ones from the past, has guts to go beyond rhetoric and avenge the death of our martyrs. We needed 10 days for an answer, but when it came, it made the nation proud. It conveyed the message that finally we are ready to fight our own battles, and desire of peace doesn’t necessarily means putting forth another cheek in front when slapped on one.

In the aftermath of 29th September Surgical Strikes in POK, nothing could be truer than the below 2 statements:
“Respect is not asked but earned"

“You can never be a global superpower unless you are a regional superpower"

So let’s try to decipher and understand the immediate ramifications of this Surgical Strike which Indian military conducted across Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), dismantling 7 Terror Launch Pads and killing scores of terrorists and their handlers in a first ever pre-emptive surgical strike ever carried out by Indian armed forces of this magnitude across the Line of Control (LOC) and more importantly with strategic objective to convey a loud and strong message  to perpetrators of terrorists sitting in Rawalpindi HQ.

1)  After years of "strategic restraint", or more bluntly put our “Ineptitude at political level" finally India has come up with a leader in PM Modi who exhibited, as expected by many, the political courage to bring a paradigm shift in our engagements with Pakistan. While diplomacy has its own space in foreign policy and remains the most potent tool, our inability to exercise military options in most provocative of scenarios ( Parliament Attack, 26/11 , 2013 Soldier beheading incidents, Pathankot, the list goes on) continuously contributed to India being perceived as a Soft State. While adversaries like Hafeez Saeed mocked us that all we can come up with are rhetoric, other hawkish voices within Pakistan and elsewhere commented that only instance we could eliminate out the terrorists were limited to movies like "Baby" and "Phantom".

As a bigger, responsible nation, restraint and responsibility is a legitimate expectation from us, but the ability to protect our people and provide them a safer environment to live, is a much greater expectation from the political leadership of a sovereign state. While a leader must strive for peace (as Modi did in last 2 years when he invited Sharif for his swearing in ceremony, or visited Lahore to meet him in person), he must also exhibit the tenacity and guts to respond to provocations which time and again affected the morale of the nation and armed forces and reached to saturation post Uri attacks. It's heartening to see that finally a leader has risen to the occasion and expectations and in Narendra Modi the nation has finally got its new “Iron Man”, who is best positioned to take the nation ahead in these testing times.

2) The surgical strikes has also ensured that we have come out of years psychological barrier that we imposed upon us, where shallow rhetoric and diplomatic dossiers were our only response to any terrorist attack, in “anticipated fear” of military escalations with Pakistan.

Those who care for the foreign policy optics though, the presence of MEA Spokesperson Vikas Swarup along with DGMO Lt. Col. Ranbir Singh, as he was providing the surgical operations details, would have been interesting. It was a clear message to Pakistan and global community that henceforth military operations would be an additional option as part of our foreign policy repertoire while engaging with Pakistan. It must also be said that in current context our "official response" to surgical strikes conducted has been most admirable.

Striking terrorist launch pads and not Pakistan military per se, we have left onus of any escalations on Pakistan. While Pakistan have officially denied that India conducted any surgical strikes, as expected, in reality they are caught between a devil and deep sea. Acceptance of Surgical strikes would mean that Pakistan would need to escalate the tension and retaliate in a conventional military manner where they very well know that they are no match to India. Denial of strikes though would not just make the Pakistani political establishment further unpopular within its domestic constituency but more importantly take away the halo that exists around Pakistan’s military chief Raheel Sharif who is due to retire in this November. Precisely for this reason, to save their skins, doctored stories of Indian soldiers death have been planted and run non-stop by the Pakistani media houses post the surgical strikes. In coming days though, their reaction would be determined more by Sharif, Raheel and not Nawaz, and India would do well to keep it guards up along the entire western front towards any eventuality.

3) The positive energy and vibe this military operation has generated for nation as a whole and our armed forces in particular is unprecedented (barring say the 1971 victory and Kargil war, which though were more conventional in nature). This aspect has also been much emphasized by several former military personnel and strategic analysts since the operations got over. While no one ever doubted the capability of our armed forces to respond to Pakistan's misadventures from across the Line of Control (LOC), till now they were almost always held back from “hot pursuit” due to lack of political courage.

Unlike Pakistan, where military dispensation, are Semi God, always ready to undermine the legitimacy of civilian leadership, in India we have had the most disciplined Army to say the least. However, for quite some time now, a significant delusion were creeping into our armed forces due to lack of political will at the top to take tough calls in scenarios of highest provocations from Pakistan supported terrorist groups.

A strong, decisive civilian government is what our Armed Forces needed, and once they had that, our forces showed their professionalism through an exemplary surgical strike with no causalities on our side. While reports from Pakistan kept harping each day post Uri attacks as to how F16's were doing military drills over Islamabad and how Pakistan armed forces were battle ready to respond to any Indian retaliation, the fact is like always they expected no "real" Indian military response imminent beyond rhetoric based on our track record.

However, when we struck this time, against their expectations, they were embarrassingly caught napping and encountered one of the most lethal surgical assault on adversary in recent history, a fact they will take years to acknowledge (They still haven't acknowledged that they lost 65 and 71 War, or their Army were involved in Kargil or even if Osama Bin Laden was sheltered by Pakistan Army in Abbottabad!!!!).

4) Another aftermath of this strike is that it has also exposed the Nuclear bluff which Pakistan (and some pseudo liberal apologists here in India) harps upon day in and day out in response to any military retaliation we contemplated in the past, to which we eventually used to cave in. While a nuclear catastrophe should be avoided under all cost, and India with its “No First Use” policy is committed towards it, Pakistan would do much better to stop behaving irresponsibly like North Korea and should stop treating their strategic assets as the only viable negotiating tool Vis a Vis India.

These attacks have shown that a considerable maneuvering space remains for Indian military without things escalating into a conventional war. All we were targeting here were terrorist launch pads across LOC in POK (which, essentially, as per our 1994 resolution in Parliament is part of India) harboring terrorists whom Pakistan calls “Non State” actors.

With Pakistan now crying across all world forums including UN that they are the biggest sufferer due to terrorism, they should essentially thank India for helping them eliminate the menace of terrorism, which is the biggest threat to mankind, unless they are complicit with those terrorists, a fact which is virtually known to the entire world. No wonder Pakistan has got the unique distinction of hosting the “Ivy League of Terrorism” today..!!

5) All round diplomatic effort of the government should also not be underestimated here. While in past, post our Nuclear Tests we were subjected to several sanctions or faced immense pressure from USA to de-escalate our troops build up under operation Parakram post the Parliament attack, the scenario this time is “markedly” different so much so that not one single nation till now has objected to India's pre-emptive strike or issued any statements favoring Pakistan. If anything, global powerhouse, USA, has taken India’s side after the strikes and has asked Pakistan to take effective action to combat and delegitimize UN designated terrorist individuals and entities. Even China, Pakistan's new BFF, has avoided making any statements which can be construed anti India. Russia too has whole heartedly come out in India's support.

What is further encouraging though is the support of Arab countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia, who have been traditional Pakistan supporters. While this could be attributed to enhanced realization across the world with regards to menace of terrorism, it’s also pretty much courtesy the way India has tried to unite the world against terrorism and asked them to stop differentiating between “Good Terrorism” and “Bad Terrorism”. It's also a reminder to cynics in India, who never shy away from taking potshots at PM's foreign visits. It's high time they realized and acknowledged that its the the efforts emancipating out of those foreign visits, which is paying rich dividends today.

The speech by Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj in the UN General Assembly on 26th September too was crucial in further aligning the world opinion in our favor on the issue of terrorism. This was in stark contrast to Nawaz Sharif's strategic self goal of endorsing of Burhan Wani; belonging to UN designated terrorist organization Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, from the UN dais. All this efforts, contributed immensely to keep global opinion on India’s side when the reports regarding the surgical strikes started pouring in.

Even at the regional level, the boycott of SAARC summit in Islamabad by 4 other nations beyond India (2 of them being Islamist states, Afghanistan and Bangladesh) is unprecedented and shows the diplomatic goodwill we have generated among our neighbors. No surprise that today, Pakistan finds itself almost isolated globally, a scenario of its own making and catalyzed by our all-round diplomatic offensive against terrorism and the key perpetrators of the same, Pakistan.

Lastly, does it solve all our problems on terrorism front? Definitely Not. It's more of a message to terrorist organizations and their perpetrators in Pakistan, that the era of strategic restraint on Indian side is over. While we will continue to take all diplomatic efforts to ensure a relationship of peace and calm with our neighbor, we would also not hesitate to take coercive diplomatic and economic decisions and most importantly military action in case of any further misadventures within our country from across the LOC. If Pakistan is hell bent to make India bleed with thousand wounds then henceforth we are equally ready to respond to each of these wounds with military strikes of greater precision and intensity.

At the same time, as a dysfunctional rogue state, Pakistan, would also definitely want to instigate some immediate unrest in our country post the embarrassing snub they have received through our military operations. While we are pretty confident that the soldiers at borders would be doing their best to protect us, we in hinterland too have to be doubly cautious with regards to any suspicious movements or activities and keep a close vigil. Intelligence apparatus too have to be at their toes to ensure that they apprehend any opportunities of sleeper cells activation within our country.

On domestic front, we would also soon see apologist lobby stand up (they are in hiding for now, as they don’t want to bear the wrath of a jubilant nation) and give sermons as to how we have changed into a war mongering nation and how talks would be the only solutions to peace, restraint should be our weapon, moral high ground should be our virtue and so on (almost the same narrative which Pakistani expects out of us): Just one suggestion for this group. No sane person wants war in lieu of peace, but then no sane person can keep tolerating its soldiers and civilians die time and again courtesy our callous attitude to counter the menace of terrorism and nefarious designs of our “rogue neighbor” head on. Also, eliminating terrorists through pre-emptive strikes is not synonymous to getting into a war, unless these apologists don’t see a distinction between Pakistan Army and terrorists.

While these group’s hyperbolic peace sermons may be good for talk shows and newspaper editorials, and helps further establish their elitist credentials, but for a common man, or a family member of martyred soldiers in Uri or for that matter any soldier, past or present, 29th September 2016 is a day of pride and satisfaction. It's a day India conveyed to the world that we will always strive for peace, but if anyone attempts to offend our territorial sovereignty and tries to inflict terror on our soil henceforth, we would not shy from responding back with full military might at the time and place of our choosing.

The Beginning to the end has just begun....!!


Salute to the Indian Army..!! Jai Hind..!!